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Complicating your train much more is the truth that people tend to preserve their automobiles longer nowadays than they used to. That is largely as a result of quality has gone up, lowering the frequency needed to buy a brand new automotive. I believe this has much more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the opposite elements you mentioned.
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You may see the rise in imports from much less than 1% within the 1960s to about 2% of US GDP in the mid 2000s (until the great recession hit). The other interesting factor is that consumption of autos (as a fraction of the financial system) started a critical decline in the early 2000s. That is going to complicate the analysis which I will take up once more within the next publish.
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